Jia Qingguo: The Implications of the US Presidential Election Result for America and the World
NOV . 22 2016
Peking University, Nov. 20, 2016: On the afternoon of November 16, 2016, the 2016 Fall Foreign Affairs Training Series Lecture was held at the B201 lecture hall of the No.2 Gymnasium by the Office of International Relations, Peking University.
Professor Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Relations, Peking University, and an expert on Sino-US relations, was invited as a special guest to discuss with audiences about where the world would go after the U.S. Presidential Election: Donald Trump entering the White House is one of the most concerned international events recently. Thousands of netizens listened to the lecture through the Tree of Knowledge Live as well.
Before the election rang down the curtain, from the elite to the mainstream media in the United States were clearly siding with Hillary Clinton, and the poll results also showed the public's preference for her. On the contrary, Trump, whether from personal experience, public image or his point of view, clearly did not "conform to the standard concept" of a presidential candidate.
Therefore, Trump’s unexpected win almost shocked everyone. Professor Jia thinks that we should accept the reality rationally after astonishment and try objectively to analyze the influence that Trump will bring to the international community. But he also sincerely reminds us that we can’t make accurate analysis due to the lack of adequate information.
Based on Trump's own views on international issues, the views of the mainstream of the Republican elite, the basis of public opinion in American society and the United States national interests, Professor Jia summarized four traits of Trump Government’s possible foreign policy: the emphasis on the "American first" principle, the contraction of foreign policy, the tendency to strengthen US "unilateralism", and the weak propaganda of ideology and values.
In addition, Professor Jia pointed out several noteworthy issues on U.S. policy toward China. First, Trump proposed to manipulate and sanction China by listing it as a currency manipulator. Second, he proposed to impose a tariff of 45% on imported Chinese goods, but this in fact will do no good to both sides, so the possibility of implementation is very small. What’s more, Trump mentioned that the United States would be taking a tougher attitude to the South China Sea, East China Sea and the Taiwan issues, which might bring a new impact to these sensitive regions. They already have a temporarily low level of stability. Other issues like Syria, Sino-U.S. relations, de-globalization and the Ivy League admission quota were also put forward by the audience.
Although Trump has a lot of extreme views during the campaign, whether these claims can be implemented depends not only on his own policy preferences, but also on the will of the voters, mainstream views within the Republican Party and the U.S. own real interests, so the policy is bound to be a result of compromises to some extent.
In general, Trump’s coming to power will pose certain impacts to the international order and the situation around the world but it won’t be much more than what is expected theoretically.
Written by: Liang Youle
Edited by: Xu Liangdi
Source: PKU News (in Chinese)